• Building a Legislative Legacy for the Future
• Task Force Reports

You are now in a time warp. As you begin reading this, you are being transported to the year 2025. The rules for the trip are simple: Suspend disbelief, do not ask how this future came to exist-it simply is. Do not question its fundamental assumptions. You are living in this future and you must cope with it.

It is January 2025. There are no legislative sessions because there are no legislatures-at least none that are reminiscent of legislatures of 2001. Those that do still exist are mere shadows of what they were some 25 years ago and exist only to rubber stamp decisions made by the people through on-line initiative elections.

Or...it is January 2025, and the all-powerful governor is getting ready to deliver her state-of-the-state address. Again, there are no legislatures to speak of. The few people who vote have opted for a strong executive after growing disenchanted with both the legislature and direct democracy.

Or...it is January 2025 and lawmakers begin to assess the effects of the hundreds of initiatives passed in November. They are gearing up for busy sessions where they and their staff will maintain 24-hour constituent service centers, conduct numerous polls and focus groups, and consider thousands of bills on popular topics in an attempt to compete with the on-line initiative elections held each quarter.

Or...it is January 2025, and legislative sessions are opening with a high level of public confidence and the usual crush of business, lists of issues to address and legislation to consider.

Sound far-fetched? Not really. Legislatures in 2025 could look like any of these-or perhaps a different future is in store. Nevertheless, change is on the horizon, and legislatures need to be prepared to face it, respond to it and recognize their role as stewards of the people's will. So rather than accept the results that fate may deal them, state legislatures can begin today to shape the legacy they want.

In doing so, legislatures have another very important obligation: to protect the core values of representative democracy and the deliberative process. Future strength depends, to a great degree, on how well legislatures of today are able to act in accordance with core values and communicate the benefits of representative democracy to their constituents.

"When I joined the staff of the Florida House 24 years ago, the Journal was typeset in hot lead. Since then the pace of technological change has been breathtaking," says John Phelps, clerk of the Florida House.

"But technology is only part of the story," Phelps says. "Legislatures are changing in other ways as a reflection of economic and societal forces. The question is: What kind of legislature is this leading to?"

There is no crystal ball. But there is futures research. No one can accurately predict what's ahead-that is impossible. But futures research can help decision makers think about what may be coming their way, better understand it and act in ways that reflect it.

"While the future is uncertain, and much of it is beyond our control, there are large aspects we can control," writes Clement Bezold, director of the Institute for Alternative Futures. "Visions and strategies linked to a clear sense of trends and scenarios make us better able to shape the future we prefer."

The legislature as an institution can be proactive in approaching its future. As the world changes, individuals and institutions must be able to recognize quickly the driving forces behind change and to adapt to those pressures in reasoned, appropriate ways.

Legislatures should continually review their processes to find new ways of keeping citizens involved and increasing public participation in the legislative process, says Representative Paul Mannweiler of Indiana.

"It is important for legislatures to stay on top of changes in technology, the economy, demographics and other social issues in order to maintain the current balance of power with governors who can respond more quickly to issues," he says. "We need to make sure that the deliberative nature of the legislative process is protected in an environment with rapid technological changes and a society with a short attention span."

LOOKING BACK TO THE FUTURE

In order to anticipate the future, lawmakers need to know what forces drove changes during the past 25 years. Then they can assess the demographic, technological, economic and political forces that are likely to drive changes in legislatures over the coming years.

America in 2025 will be an older and even more diverse society, and legislatures will generally reflect that diversity. The economy will move from one based on "atoms" (manufactured things) to one based on "bits" (digital information and data). International trade will become highly important with trade agreements forcing changes in state laws and regulations affecting business ownership, real estate and securities. Technological advances in computers and telecommunications will result in massive amounts of information being available through small, inexpensive, wireless, voice-activated devices. These technological changes will increase the impetus toward direct or participatory democracy.

With this new future come three areas of uncertainty that will have a profound effect on legislatures:

1. How citizens use direct democracy.

2. How confident our country remains in the legislature as a problem-solving institution.

3. How much people demand in government services.

These three areas of uncertainty can dramatically alter what legislatures look like in the future.

Legislatures in 2025 could have the characteristics of one of these:

• The harassed legislature, where direct democracy challenges the traditional role and function of state legislatures.
• The circumvented legislature, where direct democracy initiatives dominate a weak legislature.
• The traditional legislature, where the legislature maintains public confidence and has reduced the perceived need for direct democracy initiatives.
• The diminished legislature, where a loss of interest and confidence in representative democracy allows strong political personalities to assume unchallenged leadership.

There must be a collegiality among members. Lawmakers need a clear sense of the legislature as an institution and they need to be active in advocating that to the public. "State lawmakers are in the best position to educate the public about the virtues of representative democracy," says Rosenthal.

Legislatures need to be committed to being independent, co-equal branches of government and to a deliberative process of making public policy. Lawmakers should strive for a high quality institution and try to attract excellent legislators and staff and choose leaders who value the core values of the good legislature.

"It is important for all legislatures to improve their effectiveness as representative bodies," says Oregon Representative Ben Westlund. "How legislatures perform their duties holds the key to how representative democracy is viewed and practiced in the United States."

Properly prepared and responsive, legislatures have little to fear from change. Better civic education, combined with increased attention to accommodating the changing role of voters in a representative process, will pay long-term dividends. The necessity of dealing with greater direct public involvement in the policymaking process should only serve as a reminder that legislators are stewards of the will of the people. As such, they must find ways to stay in close touch with that will or risk losing their role in the process.

"Legislators ought to try to explain to the various publics the value of the legislature," says Rosenthal. "They should be advocates for representative democracy. The legislative process works and is a hell of a lot better than it is given credit for and the people have a right to know that."

Rich Jones is director of Legislative Programs at NCSL. Max Arinder, director of Mississippi's Performance Evaluation and Expenditure Review Committee, was chair of the LSCC Legislatures of the Future Task Force. Other members of the task force also contributed to the NCSL publications from which this article was drawn: Legislatures of the Future: Implications of Change and A Practical Guide to Futures Study.

©2001 National Conference of State Legislatures. All rights reserved.

Imagine This: Legislatures of the Future
It's a Different World for Lawmakers of 2025
Legislative Actions to Deal With Future Changes
Conducting a Futures Study in 10 Easy Steps
Core Values of Good Legislatures
Oregon Lawmakers Put Study to Work
Publications Available to Legislators and Staff

Imagine This: Legislatures of the Future

Harassed, circumvented or diminished? No one knows what legislatures will likely be in 25 years, but here are some possibilities.

What might this future look like? No one knows for sure, of course. But there are three critical uncertainties that will have a profound effect on the legislature of 2025: the use of direct democracy; the level of confidence in state legislatures; and the level of demand for government services. Based on those, there are four possible alternative futures for the legislature.

THE HARASSED LEGISLATURE
The harassed legislature is marked by the high use of direct democracy initiatives. Yet it is a strong legislature that effectively balances the goals of representative and direct democracy. It is able to maintain the confidence of the people as a problem-solving institution. The harassed legislature operates in a very competitive political environment. If it does not meet the public's needs, the public will use technology to go around it via direct democracy. Driven by self-preservation, the harassed legislature will add staff and technology to reach out to the public, identify citizens' needs and attempt to take action to meet those needs. The demand for government services in the states will determine whether legislatures use their power to add to existing ones or to cut back on them. There is stable demand for services delivered through traditional government programs or nonprofit or private sector organizations.

THE CIRCUMVENTED LEGISLATURE
The circumvented legislature is also marked by the high use of direct democracy initiatives. But it is a weak legislature that has lost the confidence of the people as a problem-solving institution. The public has determined that the legislature is not meeting their needs and has seized the opportunity presented by technology to increase the range and scope of direct democracy to make public policy decisions. There is stable demand for government services delivered through increasingly nongovernmental, libertarian means. Increased use of private and nonprofit organizations as alternatives to government programs represents a significant shift away from traditional government.

THE TRADITIONAL LEGISLATURE
The traditional legislature is marked by infrequent use of direct democracy initiatives. It is a strong legislature that has maintained the confidence of the people as a problem-solving institution, and the stable demand for services is delivered through traditional government means. The public turns to the legislature to resolve public policy disputes and uses direct democracy infrequently. There is stable demand for governmental services delivered through either traditional governmental programs or nonprofit or private sector organizations.

THE DIMINISHED LEGISLATURE
A turning away from traditional government marks the world of the diminished legislature. Direct democracy initiatives are infrequently used, and a weak legislature has lost the confidence of the people as a problem-solving institution. The public wants government services, but has limited confidence that the state legislature or direct democracy approaches will meet their needs. The legislature is supplanted by a strong executive or other level of government that could include international governmental bodies. This results in less democratic methods for making public policy.

It's a Different World for Lawmakers of 2025

Changes in society are on a fast track -- what will they mean for the year 2025?

Time to go back to the future. What does society look like in 2025? How is it different from today?

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
America is older and more diverse. The political arena largely comprises members from four different generations with different perspectives: the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, Generation X and the Y Generation.

In addition to these generational distinctions, there are a few additional demographic trends that have changed the face of America in the year 2025. Immigration, not birth rate, is a predominant factor in U.S. population growth and change. Hispanics and Asians have accounted for seven of 10 immigrants in the last 25 years. More than 70 percent of all immigrants are concentrated in six states-California, Florida, Illinois, New York, New Jersey and Texas.

Legislatures now generally reflect the diversity of the society at large. The total number of African American, Hispanic and Asian legislators continues to increase. In addition, the number of women legislators has increased. Given the aging of America, more retirees are serving in legislatures than in previous generations. Interethnic and racial politics influence the dynamics within some state legislatures.

ECONOMIC CHANGE
A few metropolitan areas in the United States now contain more than 80 percent of the total population. They cross state borders, contain multiple cities and generally lack metro-wide governments. Most of the nation's income, taxes and economic growth are generated within these metro areas.

Manufacturing has declined in the United States. Although the number of jobs is growing, the number and relative importance of manufacturing jobs in the overall national economy continues a decline that has extended over the past 45 years.

International trade is very important, accounting for a significant percentage of economic growth. New international trade treaties and negotiations have led to the rewrite of existing federal, state and local laws and regulations affecting business ownership, real estate and securities. These agreements have further led to calls for creation of a supra-national body to prohibit discrimination against out-of-state investors based upon environmental or political practices.

Changes in the U.S. economy test the ability of state tax systems to collect the revenue necessary to finance state government.

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
The United States has shifted from an economy based on manufactured things to an economy based on digital information and data. The Internet, television, phone service and other forms of communication and electronic entertainment have merged into one integrated, digital stream accessible through small, wireless, voice-activated devices.

Immense computing power is available at low cost and in very small devices. Computers have become almost invisible and embedded everywhere-in clothing, chairs, human tissue and even the blood stream. Advances in computing power and artificial intelligence drive other technological advances in the areas of biology, genetics and medicine that pose complex and fundamental moral, ethical and religious questions to policymakers and those who support their work.

Direct voting forums, GroupWare and computerized decision support systems provide a constant impetus toward participatory or direct democracy.

POLITICAL CHANGE
Electronic commerce, Internet communications and worldwide economic interests, to name a few forces, now challenge the viability of traditional political boundaries and the governmental authorities that operate within them. The global village allows people to see and virtually inhabit the world from any angle. Lacking a firm local perspective, individuals begin to lose their ability to make consistent policy judgments based on local interests.

PUTTING THESE CHANGES TO WORK
With all these changes, how do you make legislatures strong, viable institutions in this world of the future? How do you make them effective with direct democracy's popularity? How do you use the wealth of digital data to enhance lawmaking? This is what legislatures need to think about now, to be ready for the year 2025.

Legislative Actions to Deal with Future Changes

Change is a given, but taking steps to deal with it effectively will increase public approval and support of the institution.

To deal effectively with future change, the task force developed the following recommendations.

Legislatures must help improve the quality of public participation in all forms of the democratic process.
The implication for the legislature is that it should not fight the trend toward greater direct democracy, but should seize the opportunity to find ways to inform the people of choices, taking every opportunity to promote the core value of deliberation in the process.

Legislatures must help improve the quality of policy debate on public issues, showcasing the advantages of the legislative arena where possible.
Technology will make it easier for legislatures to get information out to the public about policy issues. The task will be to win the public's attention and to help citizens understand how the institution of the legislature provides a desirable arena for solving complex problems and for bringing together competing interests to arrive at solutions that are sensitive to the interests and needs of a broad range of people.

Legislatures must continually reassess and refine their public policy role.
Legislatures should carefully consider the role they may be asked to play when initiative processes lead to conflicting or competing laws or, more important, what role they can play to keep such conflicts from arising.

Legislative leadership will be especially important in setting up communication processes and deciding when and how to provide a quick response to public concerns.

Legislatures must protect the balance of power.
The more dynamic the political environment, the more critical the legislature's role in providing an effective check on the executive and its accompanying bureaucracy. Under most scenarios, both the legislative and executive branches will face increased pressure as the "information age" reaches maturity and wide-ranging access to information becomes commonplace.

Legislatures need a renewed commitment to the institution, better education for the public and the membership, and expanded communication and technological capability.
Commitment, education and communication are the keys to whether the legislative institution remains as a major conduit for policy-making or whether it declines. As information overload threatens to bury legislators, even in part-time legislatures, the institution must find ways to compensate, giving them at least a fighting chance to be effective policymakers. Legislatures must provide leadership to ensure a broad public understanding of the role and benefits of representative democracy. Legislatures must find ways to communicate to the public that the legislative process is necessarily contentious because it encompasses different and competing values, interests and constituencies, all of which are making claims on government or one another. Effective legislative performance in representing and resolving competing interests in society is the best defense of representative democracy.

Conducting a Futures Study in 10 Easy Steps

1. Establish a Focal Issue

• Decide on the primary questions to be answered and the expected benefits from the study.
• Establish the scope and breadth for the focal issue. If the scope is too broad, the research may lack focus. If it is too narrow, the research may be too limited.
• Determine how far in the future to focus the study. Futures research involves looking at least six years ahead.

• Evaluate the knowledge and skills of the group conducting the study.
• Assess the opportunities and threats posed by the larger world outside the group.

• Learn from the past, but don't rely solely on it.
• Look for major events that affected the focal issue in a significant way.

• A driving force is a key trend that will probably affect future events.
• Driving forces can be grouped into social, technological, economic, environmental and political categories.
• Identify driving forces whose outcomes are not certain and will significantly affect the focal issue. These are called critical uncertainties.

• Core values are essential beliefs and principles.
• They provide the foundation for decision making about the future.

• Identify areas of critical uncertainty that could have a major impact on the focal issue.
• Graph all areas of critical uncertainty to form a matrix that shows possible scenarios of the future. Each quadrant of the matrix represents a different scenario.
• For example, high use of direct democracy and low confidence in state legislatures creates the circumvented legislature scenario.

• Scenarios are stories that highlight the forces that may push the future in a given direction.
• The first step is to develop a plot centered on the focal issue and the driving forces.
• Next create characters to carry out the plot.
• Scenarios should give the reader the whole realm of future possibilities.

• Seek the opinions of others to assess the plausibility, desirability and implications for each scenario.
• Keep the core values in the forefront of any evaluation of scenarios.

• Identify specific goals and challenges that must be met in order to make the desirable future a reality.
• Looking into the future is not enough, the group needs to also develop action plans for implementation.

• Review the plan at regular intervals and chart its progress.
• Reevaluate and redirect action plans as new trends emerge.

Core Values of Good Legislatures

No question about it: Change is part of the future. Lawmakers need to carefully assess what kind of change the public demands of the legislature, and then, as servants of the public will, respect and accommodate it. But legislators also have another obligation: to protect the core values of representative democracy and the deliberative process.

Nine core values represent the heart of the legislative institution. And its future strength depends, to a great degree, on how well legislatures today incorporate those values and communicate them to the people.

To remain strong, legislatures should:

1. Be ethical institutions.

2. Be committed to representative democracy as opposed to democracy by polls and other forms of direct democracy.

3. Be responsive and open to the needs of the people.

4. Be committed to collegiality among their members.

5. Have a clear sense of themselves as institutions and be active in advocating on their own behalf to the public.

6. Be committed to being independent, coequal branches of government.

7. Be committed to a deliberative process of making public policy.

8. Be committed to being high-quality institutions, including attracting high-quality legislators and staff.

9. Value leadership that promotes the core values of the good legislature.

If they are properly prepared and responsive, legislatures have little to fear from change. Better civic education, combined with increased attention to accommodating the changing role of voters in a representative process, will pay long-term dividends. Dealing with greater public involvement in policymaking should only serve as a reminder that legislators are stewards of the people's will. The challenge is to stay in tune with the changing will of citizens or risk losing a role in the process.

Oregon Lawmakers Put Study to Work

Oregon, where citizens voted on more than 20 statewide ballot issues last November, uses direct democracy initiatives more than most other states and the pressure is growing to use them even more, says Representative Ben Westlund. "Changes in technology are leading the shift toward direct democracy. Pressure is building to get closer to a true form of direct democracy such as direct, on-line voting on issues," he says. "It is important that the legislature improve its processes and become more effective as an institution so it can maintain its role in a representative democracy."

The Oregon Legislative Assembly plans to use technology to increase its responsiveness to constituents and enhance the collegial atmosphere and civility within the body to improve how it conducts its business. As part of the conference, legislators developed ideas to move the legislature into a more desirable future. Many of the recommendations are being used and reinforce ongoing efforts to provide training for lawmakers and strengthen the legislative institution.

Publications Available to Legislators and Staff

To answer these questions and to help lawmakers prepare for the future, the Legislative Staff Coordinating Committee of the National Conference of State Legislatures created the Task Force on Legislatures of the Future. Over the course of two years, the task force studied those driving forces that are likely to shape the nature of state legislatures in the 21st century and the environment in which they will operate.

Based on different projections for these driving forces, the task force developed four potential scenarios that describe legislatures in the 21st century, as described in its report, Legislatures of the Future: Implications of Change. The goal is to provide legislators, legislative staff and other observers with visions of the future that they can use to prepare for potential changes. Two reports from the task force are available from the marketing department of the National Conference of State Legislatures at (303) 830-2054. One copy of each publication is free to legislators and legislative staff.

NCSL hopes that decision makers will use these materials, supplemented with information that describes how the driv-ing forces may affect their specific states. Rather than predict the future, the task force wants to provide legislatures with information on how future changes may shape the legislative institution in their state. Policymakers may also want to use the companion report, A Practical Guide to Futures Study, to conduct their own study. Legislators can use these materials to identify the potential impacts of future changes and develop ways for promoting the positive and avoiding the negative.

NCSL wants to hear from you if your legislature is conducting a futures study or examining its processes based on the scenarios of the future contained in the main article. What do you think of the plausibility of the various scenarios? Are there other scenarios that would be appropriate? Please send your comments to Rich Jones, NCSL, 1560 Broadway, Suite 700, Denver 80202, or e-mail them to rich.jones@ncsl.org. We will compile and report on the comments in future issues of State Legislatures and on the NCSL Web site.

©2001 National Conference of State Legislatures. All rights reserved.